Here's an exclusive for you: England will not play two spinners at Cardiff in the first Ashes Test.
This revelation, which contradicts nearly all opinion once England named their Ashes warm-up teams, is based on neither brilliant investigative journalism nor psychic prediction. Instead it relies on logic - but please give it a chance anyway.
There is no disputing that Australia are better equipped with fast bowlers than spinners: my screensaver since the tourists named their squad last month has simply been Nathan Hauritz's first-class record (88 wickets in 45 matches at 46.53) in a range of colours, fonts and flash applications.
But the simple fact is that England are similarly equipped. Yes, Graeme Swann has shown himself an admirable international competitor and, yes, Monty Panesar and Adil Rashid turn the ball further than any Australian outside the Sky Sports commentary box. Still none is as strong an international bowler as a fully-fit Ryan Sidebottom.
The hirsute left-armer misses the Edgbaston practice match with Warwickshire as Swann and Panesar join Andrew Flintoff, Stuart Broad and James Anderson in a five-man attack. But are Andy Flower and Andrew Strauss seriously thinking about leaving Sidebottom out a week later?
The talk is that the SWALEC stadium will be a dust bowl - blithely ignoring the fact that it is in south Wales, a region rarely mistaken for Saharan Chad. Even if it is dry and spin-friendly, what is to say that Australia's part-timers will not do as much damage as a second English spinner? Michael Clarke's record in India puts that of Panesar to shame and on a recent trip to Glamorgan for Northamptonshire Monty took 2/149.
If Flintoff is fit enough for a Test match, something not proved by appearances in the colours of Lancashire and Red Bull, then the temptation to pick four fast bowlers, i.e. the best England XI, will be enormous. The England hierarchy have not trusted Panesar for some time and given his current form with Northants it would be a big surprise if he changes that in Birmingham.
Rashid, meanwhile, does not have enough experience to merit this kind of trust - as his remaining behind Panesar in the pecking order shows. After passing up yet another chance to pick the Yorkshireman in a practice match they cannot be considering him for a first Test cap we all know will come in the next 12 months.
On the other hand, if Flintoff is not fit then the argument is moot. Ian Bell will have to return since a batting order with Matt Prior at six and Sidebottom at nine is simply not viable.
Flower and Strauss chose the five-and-five strategy against the West Indies because it made sense in the circumstances: England needed convincing wins from the start of the series, the conditions were in their favour and the opposition weak. None of these will be as compelling in Cardiff and Flintoff's batting will be essential to make five-and-five sturdy enough so early against such strong opposition.
Logic is not always our friend in second-guessing the England selectors. Vikram Solanki is the latest nonsensical inclusion in the Lions squad despite having as much chance of an Ashes 2009 cap as Andrew Symonds. But Flower and Strauss have impressed with their first-team decision-making so far.
Including Ravi Bopara ahead of Michael Vaughan was audacious but also pragmatic; a calculated gamble. Picking two spinners for the first Ashes Test, without truly believing in both, would be merely speculative and the opening exchanges are no time for a long-odds punt.
Watch out instead for Steve Harmison's return at Edgbaston or The Oval, or a call-up for opening batsman Stephen Moore, if Australia get on top.
Much more likely in Cardiff is a challenge to the four seamers to match their Australian counterparts. This will be the task for the rest of the series anyway, and they are in home conditions and have the irrepressible Swann in support.
Whatever the noise in public, England need evidence that they will prosper with a second spinner. Unless Panesar delivers something utterly remarkable against Warwickshire next week, Flower and Strauss will go with the best XI they have and trust them to get the job done.
